Religion, because once you go green, you begin to develop a belief system that changes how you view the world and your place in it.

Relativity — because frankly, green is all about the context in which comparisons are made and sides are chosen.
Ah…the message is not clear, yet the mandate has been made.  Corporations have made sustainable business practices part of their Corporate Social Responsibility programs, the Government is moving rapidly (ok, I did say Government — they move as fast as they can) to implement new regulations, and manufacturers have been and are continuing to improve their processes as long as they see life in the market.  (Translation - market share.)

We’re moving fast towards a new way of living, but the crazy thing is that not everyone cares about the end goal and.  Why? I think it’s because the goal is so difficult to define. And if you can’t define it, as the saying goes, you can’t measure it, and therefore, you can’t improve it.

Consultant-speak aside — there’s more at stake than performance measurement.

The concept of green is one that we (Earthsense) have measured for products that are known to consumers: food, non-food consumables (think detergent, paper, etc.) as well as durables such as cars, washing machines, etc. We explain what the most common explanation of “green” is … another word for sustainability — which really boils down to a simple concept: use resources wisely as to maintain the quality, diversity, beauty, and functionality of our planet.

Borrowing from the World Changing Guide — we loosely define green as being the term for anything that is organic, minimally processed, made from renewable resources, incorporates fair trade practices, is energy efficient, etc. We also ask people to define in their own words what green means to them (by product category, like, dairy or cleaning fluids) and we’ve found that “green’ has come to represent a notion of social consciousness — laced with concepts that are often at odds with each other.  (Buying local — or organic which is better?)

I keep meeting people who are proud to tell me that they are just not down with the green concept. They say it without malice, they are not challenging me.  They just say that it isn’t really relevant to their lives.  Is it their fault for not getting on board the train?

I don’t think so.  While I don’t advocate sweeping socialism, I do believe that the power of changing the world lies in the hands of the commercial producers of products and services. Simply put, if you change your product to be more efficient, use renewable materials, use less packaging, etc. etc. the consumer has NO CHOICE but to buy your *new* and *improved* green product.  (OK, I can hear the protests in my inner ear…”but they can buy from competitors”…. But consumers can always choose to buy another product. If you have a great product, why not make it better in ways that improve your impact on the planet?  Why wait for the regulations? Why not be proactive?)

Green is a process, a journey, not a state of being. You can always find some product that is greener than another (or better yet, you can always just not use any product, live on a mountain, naked, and be one with the planet.)  What green means is really contextual.  As marketers, we should look at our products and imagine the comparison scenarios. Someone will always find fault with our spin, but truth be told, most people are comfortable with the legal concept of “reasonable doubt”.  If you tell them your story, and you put it in a truthful context –they’ll give you a chance.  And that’s what we’re all aiming for anyway, isn’t it?  A chance to strut our stuff, show our value, change their lives (making a little money along the way?)

Your thoughts?

When I need to climb out of the box I am in — and stretch my mind before it snaps, I reach for mysteries.
My friend, Marian recently sent me a book that I couldn’t put down.  It’s by Jeffrey Deaver and the title is “The Broken Window”.  It is a book about data mining used to commit the worst of crimes: murder.
Here’s a description from his web site:

Data mining is the industry of the 21st century. Commercial companies collect information about us from thousands of sources—credit cards, loyalty programs, hidden radio tags in products, medical histories, employment and banking records, government filings, and many more—then analyze and sell the data to anyone willing to pay the going rate. Some people approve, citing economic benefits; others worry about the erosion of privacy.
But no one has been prepared for a new twist: A psychotic killer with access to the country’s biggest data miner—Strategic Systems Datacorp—is using detailed information to work his way into the lives of victims, rape, rob and kill them and then blame unsuspecting innocents for the crimes. The killer’s voluminous knowledge of the victims and his ability to plant damning evidence mean that even the most vocal protests of innocence go ignored by the police and juries.

http://www.jefferydeaver.com/Novels_/Broken/broken.html

Read this book, it is well-written, suspenseful, realistic and just a great read.

———–
Other favorites of mine are not pure fiction, but they are so interesting that I didn’t really want to put them down.

They include:

Supercrunchers
http://www.randomhouse.com/bantamdell/supercrunchers/

Freakonomics

http://freakonomicsbook.com/

The Long Tail

http://www.thelongtail.com/

Sometimes, I think when you set out to write (be it blog, letter, email), you have this image of the perfect post….and it’s difficult to let it go until you’ve polished yourself to a very dull point.  The same can be said for all projects, and data projects in particular.

Last year I formed a new company called Earthsense with my business partner and a group of crazy colleagues who like to take on really challenging marketing problems.  The idea started simply – to apply common sense to the explosive green movement.  As researchers, we wanted to use our skills at gathering and analyzing data to arm organizations with the information they need to produce products that are good for our earth while being good for the bottom line.  Since early last summer, our team at Earthsense has been immersed in sourcing, collecting, evaluating and standardizing lots of disparate data sources.  Our goal was to create a proprietary study – the Earthsense Eco-Insights Survey but to use our various skill sets to provide more than the traditional banners associated with syndicated market research.

This particular group of people have various backgrounds, but at our core we are all data geeks.  (Yeah, the truth comes out.)  We have expert researchers, marketers, analysts, statisticians, demographers, business folk, a microbiologist, a few with psychology backgrounds, city planners, geographers and ex-broadcasters and a few professors, too.  We have always had an interest in understanding consumers from a holistic sense — and so this survey has a special set of questions designed to understand consumer attitude, motivation and behavior when it comes to eco-friendly products.  For behavior, we had a theory that people express themselves by “voting” with their wallets (product purchases), voting with actions (conservation efforts, volunteering, donating) and also, traditionally and publically, by political affiliation and choice of candidate. 

Oh!  Wait until you see the patterns we are uncovering by examining the largest group of observations on the subject — 30,000 people answered our survey!  (Yes, count ‘em.  It is the largest survey of its kind in this area.)  We see strong relationships between political orientation (conservative, libertarian, moderate), Democrats, Republicans and Independents and attitudes about global warming and who is responsible for getting us out of this mess.  That is, some groups have higher concentrations of people who take personal responsibility and believe that we all need to do our share, while others believe more realistically, government and private industry are the only entities large enough to have measurable impact.

And to make it more challenging, we are actually going farther than just creating segments from survey responses — we’re looking deeper at “personal eco-systems” (mecosystems) where we examine all the influences that affect an individuals propensity to adopt eco-friendly/green/socially conscious behavior.

But it gets tricky.  When do you have to stop collecting and start analyzing?  So many theories and so little time!  It’s not demographics alone, nor lifestyle or lifestage, not the economy alone….is it media? Social networks? External factors like organizations, climate, resources (exographics?)  It’s tricky because there are varying levels of data (geographic based, vector based, point level, summarized, etc.) and they are not all updated at the same timeframe.  The possibilities are endless!

These are the types of data we’re crunching, examining, analyzing.  If you’ve read Super Crunchers — you’ll understand the fire that burns when you have lots of data to look at…its addictive as you move it around (kind of like a Rubiks cube) looking for the solution.  And it is an  new way of understanding the perfect storm needed to incite consumer behavior. 

So, we’re not waiting to release our results until we find the perfect answer.  We’re teaming up with information pros around the country (international has to wait until next year!) to digest our data, enhance it, analyze it, and provide measurable, actionable information for companies who are grappling with growing green.  The green train has left the station — only companies who have open minds and willingness to experiment and learn will wind up on the other side of Sustainabilty Mountain intact.

That is, I’ve worked as a vendor in the information industry for most of my career…and I enjoy working with other vendors as well as end users for their information needs. Many of my clients are actually big companies that have their own research departments but are looking for assistance when they’ve run out of conventional options.

I know the inner workings of most of the companies that I deal with — having been there, done that. I know when to buy, what questions to ask, when to push, and when to back off.

Catenate came into existence because I really wanted to be an “emissary” (one who works on the behalf of others) to this world I felt I knew well. I saw unassuming prospects, unaware of their options, make uneducated choices. My goal was to offer a variety of sources that could be used to solve complicated problems — without the bull that goes along with big company sales goals and bureaucracy.

When I first started the business, I worked with vendors I knew well. I set up deals to earn a commission that generally ranged between 20 (stingy) and 60 (good) points (%) of the market value for the project. That is, depending on the greediness of the source, I could sell a project and make between 20 and 60 cents on the dollar. Most of my projects went above and beyond the initial specifications — after all, what good is data if you don’t know what to do with it? Even though it wasn’t required, my team would try to get the most out of what we saw — and deliver to the client without extra charges. (You buy an answer, you buy our brains, not the time it took for us to solve the problem.) Most of the vendors appreciated the real value that a VAR (Value Added Reseller) brings to the table and were very supportive. Let’s face it, if you don’t deliver, clients simply don’t come back for more.

Over the years, more programs became available for information resellers. I spent a great deal of time reviewing the benefits of the various sources before agreeing to resell their stuff. But a funny thing happened. The more time I spent trying to improve the products for the vendors so that they met clients needs (yes, most of these vendors wouldn’t know a real client if he bit them on the ass), the more difficult it became to work with them as a reseller.

“We’re partner friendly” they’d declare, trying to woo me. “We want to have the best product”. But the larger the organization, the more layers of people trying to keep their ho-hum jobs got in the way. Without naming names, suffice it to say that the biggest players in the data and geodemographic industry do not have their clients needs top of mind. They are always looking to squeeze more profit out of a tired product and rarely entertain new ideas that would bring them far more revenue if they just took the time to think about the problems they are trying to solve.

I’m not bitter, just inspired.

If I told you about all the crap I’ve been dealing with over the past few years trying to get vendors to give me advance information on updates and changes so that I can prepare myself, my website, my clients — my own client information that they gather on my behalf, and BASIC BASIC internet advertising statistics — you’d be shocked at how incredibly unsophisticated and uninspired the big vendors are. They play it safe — they play it stupid and leave millions on the table.

I am working on a plan to change the way people get marketing data. I don’t intend to reinvent the wheel, just put together a car that actually moves forward when you step on the gas!

Wouldn’t it be nice to start by telling your vendor what the end goal was and having them give you a “trip tik” (pre-yahoo maps I know!) that showed you all the options and the places you might want to stop and investigate along the way before getting to your end goal?

Imagine a road trip where you knew where all the gas stations were, when you were likely to need them, the restaurants, the loos….all neatly mapped out in relation to your buy cialis buy cialis professional buy viagra professional end destination. And the beauty would be that you could investigate any of the paths along the way in more detail…knowing that you could get back on track at any time.

Too often, we data geeks go searching for answers without keeping the end goal in mind. We provide demographic reports, maps, analyses — but fail to answer the question “now what”". Action oriented marketing is what I believe in, and what I intend to deliver in Catosphere V2.

…….

Now back to work!

I guess I could start by explaining my spotty blogging this summer.

We live in an area called Central NY. Actually, smack in the center of New York state, we’re in a ‘burb of Syracuse. This is simply one of the most strikingly beautiful places to live — filled with rolling hills, clear lakes, pastures, farms, and indeed a city that has many claims to fame (other than being the home of the Syracuse University “Orangemen” !) Summers here are beyond beautiful….but winters are a little brutal at times. (Syracuse is the fourth snowiest city in the country averaging over 100 inches a year…and when those winds blow, you simply don’t want to go out.)

Anyway, with two small children, summer is the time we let loose and spend as much time outside (untethered to the computer) as we can. (Thank goodness for cell phones and PDAs…I am always able to get a few things done while being mobile.)

This year, my business, Catenate, LLC took on a very challenging project for our favorite client — HP and indeed, that was a big focus during my working (and non-working) hours.

Added to that pressure, of course, we have had our house on the market. Keeping things spotless was a bit challenging — but that was part of our daily lives, too. Knowing that we could move at any time, I’ve been hesitant to change office space and add an assistant or two…I was waiting, in kind of a limbo, until the dust settled.

Like many of us in the sandwich generation, with parents and young kids — this summer was also a time of hospitals and nursing homes.

I am sad to share that after a six year battle with emphysema, lymphedema, depression, with no hope for a cure — my dad passed away last week. He wasn’t happy, he wanted relief from years of pain. He knew the end was near, but I don’t think he really expected to die so soon. While we weren’t shocked, death is never easy, no matter how much you think you’re prepared for its inevitable presence at your doorstep.

Dad was a smart man, and he planned for the future. He had a will and a financial planner, but unfortunately, he wasn’t very organized. My mom, like many women of her generation, didn’t pay the bills, and doesn’t have a handle on the finances. So, my sisters and I are tasked with locating and logging all of the assets he and my mom shared so that we can plan for her future.

So…as you can imagine, my focus wasn’t really on demographic data in the least.

I was intrigued though, by the whole administrative side of death. The questions on the death certificate such as place of birth, cause of death, and other pieces of information that could be used to show how mobile our society is. How do we live? How do we marry? When do we die, and why?

And of course, the first thing that came to mind when we determined that we’d have to hunt for assets is the fact that just about every financial transaction has a social security number associated with it. I’ve been making calls to see if there is an IRS database which might give us clues as to where to look. We’re looking through cancelled checks (which gives great insight), credit card bills (calling for the report today) and other pieces in the paper trail that one can’t avoid while living in modern society.

Looking through receipts we can see where he chose to spend his money — on prescription drugs, food, etc. The analyst in me wonders if there are patterns associated with behavior and death. While hopefully we can use numbers and databases to learn more about one side of the man we loved as our dad, you can never reduce a person down to mere numbers.

Looking at the house I grew up in, the house in disrepair after years of neglect, its hard to put a number on its value — or lack there of. To my mom, its as clear as can be in her head. She adds the years spent together there (40+), the kids (3), the animals, the neighbors, the good memories and yes, the bad…. and can’t imagine moving. My sisters and I see her future tied up in an asset that can be sold and will likely be completely torn down or remodeled beyond recognition. To come to some kind of resolution that preserves and honors her memories yet provides for a future certainly filled with healthcare bills — is something that we need to do. We’ll use databases that show recent sales in the area, upgrades, tax rates — all this data will help us assign a value that can be used to turn memories into cash. But will it be fair? Of course, its all relative.

So, I’m back. And while I can’t promise any revelations, I do look forward to taking a second look at sources of data that we take for granted.

But taking a peek at the data has been, well shall we say, less than pleasant!

When you create survey tools that include lots of visuals, and customized questions, the resulting tables are quite big and unwieldy.

Yes, we have SAS and SPSS programmers, tools and all that good stuff, but for your average analyst who just wants to LOOK at the goods, what is usually the tool of choice?? Excel, of course. Or Access.

But Excel has its limitations (great limitations — only 256 columns and 65,000 rows). We searched up and down for tools to let us have Excel-like functionality — yet an ability to handle over 3,000 columns of data.

If you are over the age of 35 — you might remember the WordPerfect vs Microsoft Office battles? Well, upon searching the *wonderous* wide web, we came across an old favorite, from long ago…Corel’s Quattro Pro. This beauty takes 18,000 columns with 1,000,000 rows!!!! And it’s elegant and fast, and so darned easy to use levitra because it works like Excel but somehow it seems even more intuitive. And an upgrade from Excel is only $159.00. How cool is that?

So, if you want to know what I’m up to these days, I’m up to my ears in new data…. gleefully, now that I can see it!

And where is my new demographic data you ask?

You would think that a reseller would be “in the know”…but companies that sell this data are notoriously close to the vest with release dates. I will likely know the day before you do when the new features and new data is available. So much for being a valued partner. I do know that new features are on the way — and that’s good news. But release dates? List of features? Anything? Nada.

I’m learning not to trust what big companies say. I have actually grown to love working with smaller companies — they seem to care more about partnerships and actually respect people who try to make money for them. I like nimble companies that make things work instead of talking about them endlessly and finding excuses why they “can’t” as opposed to investigating how they “can”. It’s universal among big companies. They get so bloated they can’t tie their own shoes… and they don’t apologize when they make mistakes or are slow to respond.

But I digress….

I want to share with you my scoop. I’ve been working on a project where our team is collecting primary data — that is, we’re collecting data from users of particular equipment to help our clients get a better grasp on the market they serve. My scoop is this: web-based research isn’t dead, but the model is going through a dramatic change.

I’ve learned a great deal from this project — and in many ways, am more determined to succeed now than I was when we started over six months ago.

Just four years ago, we did a similar project and achieved great success. We were able to collect enough data to feel confident in our results. This time, the gathering of quality data has been challenging and I believe it is due to the following factors:

1. Over surveying of the target population — this indeed, is a big problem for all researchers –regardless of the instrument and the methodology they choose to execute. Internet-based surveys (once a novelty and now the norm (with estimated statistics ranging from 40-60% of all market research surveys being conducted on the web. ) have taken a great hit. Plainly put, any idiot with a copy of Survey Monkey or one of the myriad other online packages can easily craft a thing that looks and feels like a survey, but doesn’t really meet the criteria for being true “market research”. As a result — consumers and businesses are bombarded with requests for participation in market research. I am sad to say that most of what I see, while good intentioned, is not really well-crafted.
2. Mislabeling legitimate messages as SPAM, and SPAM filters is a huge problem for marketers that use the web. The general rule is to reach out only to people that have given you permission to contact them. Unfortunately, when you are trying to understand the size and scope of an entire business segment, there is no way you can estimate factors without getting data from the entire spectrum of users. And, the only way to reach out to a broad segment of the population is to rent lists from media and trade associations that cater to those end users. So, even if you legitimately rent a permission-based list, and have the organization/magazine/site, mail on your behalf, some end users perceive your invitation as spam and subsequently blacklist you. Additionally, with so many word patterns sending off flags in tools such as “SPAM ASSASSIN”, no matter how direct your subject line — you can be dumped into your recipients junk folder and they might never get a chance to even see your message and judge the merit themselves.
3. Misuse of sweepstakes and prizes as incentives for participation. Not too long ago, before everyone was on the survey bandwagon — you could offer a premium such as a branded mug or $20.00 to get 20 minutes of someone’s time for a survey. Now, the competition is fierce. For the past few years a few companies have grown big by building panels of consumers so that companies could have statistically balanced samples. The way they quickly built up their numbers was to solicit respondents using banners that promise free large screen TV’s and PC and ipods. Most consumers had no idea just how many hoops they had to jump through to get the big prize. After several steps, many just dropped out — and left feeling as if the whole thing was a scam. The consequence is that you have to incent people to come to your site, to complete the survey, and to come back if you wish to work with them again. That involves lots of coordination and re$ources — and the right choice of incentives. Choose wrong and your response rate suffers.

There are likely a zillion other reasons that I could come up with if I had to…and as I do a post mortem on this project as we gear up for the next phase….I’ll write about them.

The main lesson learned is that things aren’t working the way they used to just two to four short years ago. We as marketers and researchers have to devise new ways to pay consumers and businesses back for their input. More thoughts on that later….

Wendy

We didn’t want our postcard card to look like regular real estate cards, so we ruled out a picture of the house on the front. I designed my own card and made it a jumbo (double sumo sized! 11 inches wide by 12 inches when opened, talk about IMPACT!)

How do you put yourself in your prospects’s shoes?

I decided to step back and think about what I think when I see a “for sale” sign up at a neighbor’s house. (Hmmm! Why are they moving?? What’s it like in there? How much are they asking??) When there are open houses in the neighborhood, we like to go see, but we don’t want to be labeled as “nosy neighbors”. We thought about it, and concluded that our friends and neighbors are likely just like us. These are people who run many businesses here in the Syracuse metro would be open to poking around when we weren’t here — not only for their own knowledge of the market, but hey, they hire people, they have friends and relatives that move…why not put the cards right on the table for all to see?

So — we are hosting an open house for the neighborhood. And we won’t be there!

Funny thing, many of our neighbors likely don’t even know our house is for sale. We live in a development (Mallard’s Landing, built by Stringer Development) where there are covenants that are applied to only one part of the development, not all — in particular, the regulations of signs.

The result is that residents in the older sections of our neighborhood are free to display “for sale” signs and we can’t — since we’re in a newer section. Yes, we agreed to the covenants when we bought here, but the developer never says in the covenants that they aren’t applied to the entire neighborhood — that they are discriminatory by design.

And of course, they don’t prohibit the developer from putting up his own signs — which I think is absolutely a restraint of trade! They have a good 30 signs up, and they tell me that we can’t have a sign because it will make it look as if the neighborhood is transient. Well, in an area where executive families move in and out — it’s really good to let people know that your house is for sale — research from the Realtor association shows “for sale” signs as one of the top ways people find the house they ultimately buy.

“Home Buyer & Seller Survey Shows Rising Use of Internet, Reliance on Agents
WASHINGTON (January 17, 2006) –

Technology is transforming how Americans buy and sell homes in unexpected ways, including how they work with real estate agents and brokers, according to one of the largest surveys of real estate consumers ever conducted. The study was released today by the National Association of Realtors®.

Nine out of 10 home buyers use a real estate agent in the search process, but use of the Internet to search for a home has risen dramatically over time, increasing from only 2 percent of buyers in 1995 to 77 percent in 2005; it was 74 percent in 2004. The next largest source of information for buyers is a yard sign, mentioned by 71 percent of buyers.When asked where they first learned about the home purchased, 24 percent of buyers identified the Internet, up strongly from 15 percent in 2004 and only 2 percent in 1997. Although most buyers use an agent to complete the transaction, 36 first learn about the home they buy from a real estate agent and 15 percent from yard signs; five other categories were 7 percent or less.”

We’ve been trying to fight this developer, but unless we want to spend tons of money on lawyers’ fees, we can’t do much to defend our right to have a sign. In my humble opinion, its arrogant not to encourage a dialogue with the community — to just make a blanket statement “NO SIGNS” and the way it is presented to new buyers and applied is wrong. All of our neighbors that know of our plight are ticked off at the developer but unless I take up a new cause (while trying to run a business, raise two small children, and oh, move….) what can we do?)

(He can’t control my direct marketing efforts, can he? Hell no!)

Anyway, this card dropped into the mailstream on Thursday and we’ve had lots of great commentary from neighbors who say that it’s a gorgeous place and priced right — we just need a buyer! So, one lesson to keep in mind — is that even if you have the right research or data (in this case, the right audience — 1,000 of my neighbors, execs, Human Resources directors, ect.), and even if your messaging is on target — when selling products and services you must make sure to reach your buyer at a time when he is motivated to make a purchase.

No one can magically produce a buyer….but we can certainly increase our odds of selling our house by making sure the buzz is out there. That’s really the expectation I have….just to create awareness and get people who might be thinking about moving to the Syracuse area to look at our Manlius house.

Funny thing, anyone moving here from a larger city will be thrilled at what they can get for their money. We like this place so much that if I could click my Dorothy shoes, I’d start that twister and move this place right smack dab in Fairfax, VA! (A cool two million I’d bet if I tried to get what I have here, there.)

Ah… but I digress as always.

Marketing 101 — hedge your bets. Use a high quality list, think carefully about your messaging, use a high quality printer, first class postage, too. Then cross your fingers (and toes) and see what happens!

Will keep you in the loop with the 411. Back to my real work — for my clients!

Wendy

You can see it in every aspect of your life, both personally and professionally.

As a consultant, in business for nine years (hard for me to believe that!) I see it daily and it just rubs me the wrong way.

I meet people who claim to work as consultants and want the professional salary and benefits that go with being a professional, yet they are very tight when it comes to investing in a good chair for the office, a decent working PC and a phone that doesn’t whine!

How many software companies have you worked at where they are too cheap to buy everyone a legal copy of software — made by someone else? Or get a decent printer (or even an extra one!) so that the staff can get things done on time with decent results?

I could go on and on… Am sure you see the same thing.

I’m not advocating a full out and out blow out of a budget, but why is it that some people and companies can’t seem to invest in themselves?

I have worked with some marketing companies that don’t clean their mailing lists — don’t use business firmographics to analyze customers, and certainly don’t invest in multichannel marketing.

Bottom line: when I look for partner companies, I look for those people who truly put their money where their mouths are. If you are selling it to someone else, you damn well be using it yourself.

As a target marketer, I know that “birds of a feather flock together” — segmentation works. And, my husband & I are in the process of trying to move from our lovely home in the Syracuse ‘burbs to somewhere in NoVA where my sisters live. We’ve always loved the Washington DC area and are ready for a change.

So, in order to help get the word out, I designed a postcard inviting 1000 of our closest neighbors to learn about our house and to visit on an open house night. My experience tells me that people who live near me in neighborhoods similar to mine are likely great prospects (or friends of prospects!) for my house.

I know quality makes a big difference so I used one of my regular sources, Axciom, to buy the list, and one of my other favorite vendors, Modern Postcard to get the news out in the form of a jumbo postcard.

I’ve used both of these vendors countless times for my clients, but not in a soup to nuts creative push for my personal business. Fingers crossed I’ll be posting from the data capitol, DC, soon!

As the rest of the world stops to smell the growing roses, the demographic data vendors of the world are all working feverishly to be first to market with their latest and greatest updates and projections.

What exactly are updates and projections, and why do they all start coming out about the time when the last snows have melted (at least in Syracuse!) and spring fever hits?

Keep in mind that the major vendors all work with the same base for their calculations: the US Census. They all add in various sources of data to make their own flavors of demographic soup. Each year out from the Census, 2001, 2002, 2003, etc. the data for small levels of geography really gets stale. So these vendors make their money by creating “estimates” for the current year. Most companies in this business have a fairly rigorous model that involves lots of local source data plus additional current population surveys. Add to that list counts from large list brokers and you have a pretty decent formula for estimating the current population.

Projections on the other hand can range from 5 years to 10 years out, and some brave companies (Woods and Poole for example) produce projections for as far out as 20 years. So much can change in five years — much more so in 20 — and it is widely acknowledged that it is difficult to produce projections with great precision that far out. However, for some companies, a very, very educated guess is well worth the price — and so, long term projections are essential data points.

But the question remains, why May? Why not January? After all it is already 2006, why do they wait until the middle of the year to get out new numbers?

I’ve always been told that it takes a long time to gather all the required information into the models, tested, then released. I think that with the 2010 Census changes, we’ll see a very different update schedule in the coming decade. Data can be transformed so much easier, workstations have incredible power, too, and therefore numbers can be crunched and tested so much faster.

Perhaps some day, we’ll be saluting the new numbers with the champagne left over from New Year’s festivities?